Alpha Flow
$22.8M SPY Put Spread Targets $630, EFX Risks $26.7M on Downside Through May
Thursday, April 02, 2026 | Alpha Pod
Executive Summary
Wednesday’s sector flow was nominally bullish but hollow — most sectors clustered in the 58-66% range on put-selling, not fresh call buying. Industrials was the lone bearish outlier at 48%, anchored by EFX’s massive risk reversal and XLI put spreads. Real Estate stood out for genuine call purchases, but at just $7.7M in premium it’s a footnote. Technology absorbed $729M yet landed at a tepid 58% bullish, split between NVDA put-selling and call-selling elsewhere. Fixed Income was the only outright bearish theme, with HYG $78 puts (bought) and IEF $94 puts (bought) flagging credit and duration anxiety.
The session’s three most compelling trades: EFX’s $26.7M bearish risk reversal selling May 15 $185 calls to fund May 15 $175 puts — a near-the-money bet on downside with 99% conviction from a stock at $178.76. GLD’s 55.6K bull call spread at the $465/$485 strikes (May 1) risked $20.2M targeting 9.5-14.3% upside in gold. And CELH’s Jan 2027 risk reversal selling $30 puts to buy $60 calls across $11.7M in premium — a long-dated bet on 78% upside from $33.65.
SPY positioning was the most lopsided session in weeks. The anchor: a $22.8M debit on a 12.4K-lot $670/$630 put spread (Apr 30) targeting a 4% drawdown from Wednesday’s $655.24 close. Bear premium ran $72M against $21M in directional buying across the term structure. Next week’s expiries are loaded — $9.4M in $650 puts bought (Apr 6) is the single largest clean directional trade in the short-dated bucket, with additional $650 and $655 put buying stacked into Apr 10. SPX institutional flow partially fades the bearish lean, but the weight of evidence points down.
Unusual Flow
RH -- $12.9M in premium across 560 contracts, dominated by structured flow with bullish bias via $250 calls (structured flow) (+2.7K, Jan 2028, 100% ask, 100% multi-leg) and $300 calls (structured flow) (+2.8K, Jan 2028, 100% ask, 100% multi-leg). Someone is building a long-dated risk reversal or call spread targeting a near-tripling from Wednesday’s $109.50 close -- an aggressive contrarian bet on the luxury housing recovery.
